Mumbai: Adaptation and Resilience

The City of Dreams is Sinking: Climate Risk, Adaptation and Urban Governance in Mumbai 

Introduction

The coastal megacity of Mumbai, where over 20 million people reside, is facing extreme climate vulnerability and risk. Situated on India’s west coast, Mumbai is a city built in colonial times on land reclaimed from the sea. While this is the city of dreams for many, its geographical location, population growth and rapid urbanisation has created within itself a junction for a climate catastrophe. Along with a housing crisis and traffic congestion, Mumbai is now expecting severe impacts of climate change. From more frequent cyclones, to unprecedented floods, as well as sea level rise, Mumbai is experiencing multiple climate risks, and its resilience is being tested to its limits.

Mumbai however, is also India’s commercial capital, and houses one of Asia’s richest municipal corporations. The Mumbai Municipal Corporation (Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, BMC) has access to capital and labour, which it has strategically used for economic and political gains, but in the face of climate change, how well can Mumbai survive? Through an investigation of the climate risks faced by Mumbai, infrastructure development, climate change adaptation plans adopted by the Mumbai Municipal Corporation, as well as the role of local-level initiatives and native communities, this paper highlights the resilience and adaptive capacity of Mumbai towards the impending impacts of climate change.

More specifically, this paper explores actors such as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, NGOs, civil societies, and communities to investigate the adaptation strategies employed and planned by the city. Substantial work in academic circles has revolved around climate change vulnerability in India, but much more attention must be given to adaptation strategies and mitigation.

Urban flooding and Extreme Temperatures: Risk and Vulnerability in Mumbai

Built on land reclaimed from the sea, India’s cosmopolitan megacity is sinking. Every year, Mumbai witnesses cyclones and intense flooding during monsoon months. Mumbai lacks a well-constructed drainage system which can tackle its heavy monsoon, and pollution has blocked its rivers from acting as a natural drainage system. Times of India in 2022 reported that studies at IIT Mumbai have shown that Mumbai is sinking at a rate of 2mm per year. With rising sea levels and unfiltered construction, the city could be facing a climate catastrophe very soon. Coasts are the most productive areas of seas, and the most immediate impact of climate change can be seen across coastal cities (Ninawe et al., 2018). According to the ‘World Urbanization Prospects, 39 of the 63 urban areas with populations greater than 5 million are located in areas with a high risk of flooding, cyclones or drought; 72 percent are located on or near the coast, two-thirds are in Asia’ (Johnson et al, 2015). Land subsidence in Mumbai is alarming, as the city is extremely vulnerable to inland flooding. Densely populated coastal cities like Mumbai will experience the impacts of climate change most intensely, and this puts the city’s vulnerable population at risk.

Exponential urban growth in the last three decades have transformed Mumbai’s landscape. With a long coastline, the islands have now been joined to form a peninsula, on which construction has taken place at an unprecedented pace. Formally, the city was protected from cyclones and flooding due to its vast mangrove cover, but urbanisation has caused massive depletion of mangrove forests; large real estate properties stand in its place now. Between 1990 to 2001 alone, around 40% of the city’s mangrove cover was wiped out (Bhise, 2004). Unsustainable growth has put Mumbai in a precarious position, placing its large population in jeopardy.

Flooding is not the only issue Mumbai is facing. Like most other cities in the country, the city now has to deal with extreme weather conditions. ‘Analysis of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data has shown a steady rise in air temperature over the past 50 years’ (Singh, 2021). Winter months in Mumbai are now as hot as summer months were a decade ago. Summer temperatures have risen exponentially, reaching new records every year. With the rise in summer temperatures, monsoon months are experiencing heavier rainfall than before. Along with this, Mumbai also has a water scarcity issue. An ever-rising population paired with infrastructure growth in the city has caused excess demand for water, and the city struggles to match this growing demand. Given the rise in temperatures, this is a concern. Urban flooding and extreme weather are monumental challenges that the city now faces.

While Mumbai’s glitz and glamour may imply that its citizens are wealthy, this is far from the truth. Housing some of the richest and poorest sections of the country, Mumbai has a large income gap amongst its residents. Over 20 million people live in around 603 km2 in Mumbai, making it extremely densely populated. Within this large population, cosmopolitan Mumbai is home to people from all around the country, most belonging to lower economical classes. Often called the ‘City of Dreams’, Mumbai rides on the shoulders of its middle and lower income population. From the booming recycling business in Dharavi, to the ever-growing service sector in its many business centres, Mumbai is the employment hub of the country. Opportunities in the megacity draw labourers from around the country, who form the crux of the city’s working population. However, the city’s exuberant living costs means that economic mobility is not always possible, and many are stuck making wages enough only to sustain themselves. Much of Mumbai’s population live in slums spread across the city (Jamkhandikar, 2020), and come from the most socially and economically backward classes, making them the most vulnerable to climate change induced risks. Dharavi, often called Asia’s largest slum, houses over 1 million people. Although it is located in the heart of the city, residents in Dharavi lack resources and oftentimes basic amenities such as sanitation facilities and availability of portable water. Residents of slums belong to lower castes and minority religions, making them extremely vulnerable to the issues of the city. Many lose their homes during monsoon seasons, and are therefore susceptible to flooding and extreme temperatures.

Along with the many migrants who come to live in Mumbai, other vulnerable populations include the native fishing community of the city, the Kolis. Over 5,00,000 Kolis live in the many fishing villages of the city, and have lived there for centuries (Schapova, 2019). However, as the growing impact of climate change manifests along the city’s coastline, fishing communities are more at risk than ever. Without government aid and competing with the city’s unprecedented urban growth, the native community of the city has been left in disarray. Frequency of cyclones has increased, sea levels have risen, and the city’s growing population continues to stretch out to the hills and the coast (Chandrashekhar, 2022. With a plethora of issues, Mumbai’s native inhabitants are amongst the most vulnerable communities in the country.

Climate change issues are uncertain in nature, and without proper adaptation plans in place, can be disastrous for megacities like Mumbai. So far Mumbai has lacked adaptive capacity to deal with the impacts of climate change, but with more frequent cyclones, floods and droughts, loss of groundwater reserves, and rapid coastal erosion, the alarm bells have gone off, and the city needs to pick up its pace at adopting a resilient climate change adaptation framework.

The Coastal Road Project: Mumbai’s Unsustainable Infrastructure Development

Mumbai sits on one of the most expensive real estate lands in the world. Its growing population has attracted massive infrastructure growth in recent years. While some growth is under the private sector and usually caters to high-end luxury residencies, or business districts, other infrastructure developments have been implemented by the government. New metro lines are being built, highways have been expanded, and new roads are being built continuously. Although much of this development is meant to cater the public, but city officials also tend to direct a lot of the city’s expenditure towards maintaining the glamourous image of Mumbai. Being the financial capital of the country, Mumbai competes with the developed cities of the world, and thus, projects are often implemented to give Mumbai an image of a developed megacity. In this process, infrastructure development in Mumbai may end up picturesque only, and its utility may not be all that fruitful.

Mumbai’s coastal location means that space for public transportation is limited. However, car dependency in the city is at a peak, and to ease the issue of congestion in the city, Mumbai’s Municipality Corporation has begun development of a Coastal Road along the coastline of the city. The Coastal Road project is an 8 lane, 29 km long freeway which will connect the Southern neighbourhoods in the city, all the way to western and northern suburbs (Acharya & Adimulam, 2023). The project is completely dependent on reclaiming land from the sea, and involves disrupting the coastline’s fragile ecosystem.

There are many controversies surrounding the project. Mumbai’s coastline is fragile and prone to encroachment, and the new Coastal Road Project has raised concerns amongst the fishing community. Not only has the project faced many obstacles due to legal issues, it has also been condemned by citizens, especially the Koli fishing community. The project did not get Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) clearance from the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), and the case was presented to the Bombay High Court, and later to the Supreme Court of India. The CRZ notification in 2011 prohibited reclamation of land for road work projects to protect coastal zones, but eventually, an exception was made for the Coastal Road Project. Work on the project now is being carried out with full force, causing distress amongst environmentalists and fishing communities. The project has displaced the fishing community, and they no longer have access to small harbours to dock their boats, or access to the sea front used for shallow fishing.

The need to build infrastructure projects at the cost of environmental protection is concerning. While Mumbai is highly car dependent, the majority of the city’s population still depends on the local railway system to travel around the city, and this project will only benefit a small section of the society. In fact, building more highways may not be the best policy decision for a city which is facing flood risk. Mumbai needs to use its resources in adaptation and mitigation strategies, and commit to infrastructure which will contribute to capacity building and a sustainable future. Although various scientific reports (Ranger et al., 2010; Zimmerman et al., 2023) have highlighted that Mumbai may soon face more frequent climate related disasters, the government and private actors have not taken active steps towards adaptation and resilience. The municipality continues to pour resources into infrastructure which has not only pushed existing vulnerable communities in further danger, but has also stalled sustainability efforts in the city.

Urban Governance and Climate Change: Institutional Actions and Local-Level Initiatives

Urban spaces are major contributors to carbon emissions, and cities are also extremely vulnerable to climate risks. There is a growing necessity for cities to implement both adaptation and mitigation efforts. In large metropolises like Mumbai, it is the responsibility of actors such as the municipality, private corporations, NGOs and civil societies to come together to formulate policies which will result in change. The willingness and capacity of local governments, businesses, and civil society organisations to bring about significant change at urban and local level will determine whether cities will actually mitigate vulnerability to climate change (Johnson, 2015). Urban spaces face the challenge of rigidity of urban infrastructure; modes of transport, urban design, fossil fuel dependency, and waste management are all infrastructures which have been developed over the years through massive expenditure. Bringing in change can be met with resistance and obstacles. In growing economies like India, the building climate adaptation entails both monetary and political costs. In Indian cities like Mumbai, policy introductions, and changes, are intertwined with political power, and the ability to mobilise citizens. Therefore, in megacities, urban governance and territorial policies play an imperative role in ushering change. Active participation and dynamic policy implementation by municipalities, and other bodies governing large metropolises, is essential. To overcome obstacles in climate risk adaptation, it is necessary for Mumbai’s urban officials to commit implementation of climate action plans. Moreover, it is also essential for the citizens to be a part of this change.

•  Mumbai Climate Action Plan: Institutional Steps

Mitigation and adaptation efforts in Mumbai have been faint, but the need for stronger efforts is growing. In recent years, the city has been more proactive in addressing its climate risk. In consultancy with C40 Cities network, Mumbai has formulated and published a Climate Action Plan, (Mumbai Climate Action Plan, MCAP). The ‘evidence-based plan’ conforms with Paris Agreement goals and follows the C40 Climate Action Planning framework. The ‘MCAP delivers on both climate mitigation and adaptation, and was developed through an inclusive and consultative approach’ (C40, 2023). Released in 2022, the MCAP involved experts in urban sustainability, universities and research organisations, residents, international organisations, and municipality officials. MCAP was launched by the then Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray, and it sets out short, medium and long-term climate goals aimed towards a net-zero emissions target by 2050 (Bhalerao, 2022). The plan also highlights programs to introduce flood resilient infrastructure, and improved air quality monitoring. Through a focus on six different sectors – Energy and Buildings, Sustainable Waste Management, Sustainable Mobility, Urban Green and Biodiversity, Air Quality, Urban Flooding, and Water Resource Management- the ambitious plan sets out priority actions which implement deadlines for the municipality, involves both private and public stakeholders, and calls for both national and international financing and funding (MCAP-BMC, 2021).

Now that the climate crisis has been given an official response, it is still important to analyse the weight of the MCAP. The MCAP is arguably inclusive, and has addressed the need for Mumbai to implement adaptation and mitigation plans. By setting up short-term deadlines for specific goals, the plan has garnered the attention of stakeholders, and has ushered much necessary change. However, the effectiveness of the plan is yet to be judged. One of the greatest limitations of the MCAP is perhaps its non-statutory character (Indorewala and Wagh, 2022). The Mumbai Climate Action Plan has an advocacy framework, and it is not legally binding. Agencies and actors involved in the various plans undertaken are not answerable to the law, and therefore their success is not guaranteed. A lack of legal incentive may be an obstacle to the plan’s future. With India’s dynamic political scenario, the success of the plan lies in the hands of the municipality bureaucrats, and commercial stakeholders.

The MCAP also fails to consider an important factor which is a recurring motif in Indian policy making; institutions in power are unlikely to act against projects that benefit them (Indorewala and Wagh, 2022). The Maharashtra Regional and Town Planning Act allows the Maharashtra government to alter state and city plans, and even halt development plans if deemed necessary. Under the interest of the state of Maharashtra, developments taking place under the MCAP may be, at any point of time, deemed unnecessary and can be halted. The MCAP comes at a time when the municipality, contradictory to its interests expressed in the MCAP, has continued to push for the Coastal Road Project. Regardless of multiple environmentalists, activists and natives protesting against the project, along with legal obstacles, the municipality has continuously pushed for the completion of the project. The CRZ notification of 2011 was also modified to allow an ‘exception’ (Indorewala and Wagh, 2019) for the Coastal Road Project to be continued, which raises the concern of how many exceptions can be made to allow infrastructure development over environmental protection.

The BMC has failed to address contradictory developments when it comes to climate change mitigation, and much of the net-zero claims seem to be façade to hide continuous unsustainable development. Moreover, the MCAP was introduced and promoted under Uddhav Thackeray, who no longer heads the political party ruling Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena. The plan was headed by then Cabinet Minister of Tourism and Environment for the Government of Maharashtra; Aditya Thackeray. The plan was heavily publicised as a flagship project by Shiv Sena’s leadership, but the party composition has changed dramatically over the last year. Uddhav Thackeray has since resigned as the president of Shiv Sena, and Ekhnath Shinde, the current head of the party has not expressed any explicit interest in further implementing the MCAP. Politics and policy making is inherently intertwined in India, and the shift in political power in Maharashtra over the last year is concerning. Ekhnath Shinde is also currently Maharashtra's Environment and Climate Change Minister, and has recently, at the World Economic Forum in Davos (Upadhyay, 2023), claimed that the current government will facilitate environment-friendly development and promote clean cities initiatives. The Dharavi Slum Rehabilitation Scheme has been cited as one of the first steps towards resident welfare and pollution control. However, such ambitious schemes have often failed in the past, and no concrete plan has been set forth as of yet. More importantly, no plan or legally binding act exists to enforce adaptation and mitigation in Mumbai.

• Local-level Initiatives and Non-state Actors

It is evident that institutional actors in Mumbai are failing to implement much necessary steps towards climate change adaptation. In times like these, local actors and communities play an essential role in developing urban resilience. In cities of India, under larger institutional governance, local community actors contribute greatly towards urban development. Some community groups in Mumbai who actively contribute to mitigation and adaptation efforts include workers in the informal sector. The ragpickers of Mumbai form an integral part of an informal business which has kept Mumbai’s system functioning for decades. Environmental reports from 2011-2012 shows that waste generated in the city daily was at 9200 metric tonnes, only half of which is collected and sorted by the municipality (Boyd and Ghosh, 2013). Large amounts of segregation are done manually by rag pickers of the city, who sort and collect recyclable matter, and sell it to middle men, who then sell it to factories. Without the informal sector’s contribution to waste management, the city would be witnessing a much worse recycling system. Ragpickers however, continue to live in poverty, and are also highly vulnerable to fl. In an attempt to somewhat formalise the rag-picking industry, Mumbai's civic body introduced the ‘Dharavi Project’ which provides ragpickers with identity cards to associate them with the BMC (Boyd and Ghosh, 2013). Providing identification has also helped NGOs get involved in the rag-picking industry and provide socio-economic aid to rag pickers and their families (Acorn India Foundation, 2022).

In India’s ever changing political and social dynamic, it is ‘critical to install systems that operate at the microlevel of climate governance. Failures of institutions and social systems must be solved by alternative and ingenuous solutions, particularly mixed-method systems’ (Boyd and Ghosh, 2013). The ragpicker’s of Mumbai are a fine example of mixed-method systems which are essential for climate change adaptation. In Mumbai, the culture of community and civil society has always been strong, it is more essential now more than ever before, to highlight the importance of local level community governance.

Another important player in urban governance at a local level includes the Koli fishing community. Pushed to the brink due to polluted waters and overfishing, the fishing community is facing a crisis that they have to respond to. Without institutional aid, the fishing community has formed organisations and civil societies which is not only aiding the community from within, but is also contributing to adaptation measures in the city. Organisations such as the National Association of Fishermen and Gorai Fishermen Cooperative Society have contributed greatly to the protection of mangroves and creeks in the city (Boyd and Ghosh, 2013). The community practises sustainable fishing, and has also formed self-help groups which allows flow of income within the community, and aids many families in receiving loans for alternative business. Other action groups have used media and blogs to draw attention to the importance of mangrove protection. In Dahisar, ‘citizens and the Bombay Environment Action Group got a Supreme Court order directing a builder, who had built bunds to stop the flow of seawater to a mangrove patch, to restore the 400 ha of wetlands’ (Boyd and Ghosh, 2013). Later, the state government took over maintenance and protection of the wetlands, but the community continues to monitor restoration work through contribution of volunteers and local community. Community activities can not only lead to adaptation and mitigation strategy, it can also trigger or pressure administrative action. Urban governance in Mumbai is not restricted to institutional actors, and citizens have continuously been part of the city’s decision-making sphere. In the light of recent climate change induced risks, it is more important than ever that communities be considered essential actors in urban governance.

Civil society organisations and local actors have also actively advocated for disaster risk reduction (DRR). Traditionally, DRR and climate change adaptation plans in the country have been developed separately, and often do not overlap when formulated by institutional actors. However, as is the case with many other sectors, megacities like Mumbai involve local-level actors in managing flood risk reduction. In recent years, Mumbai has witnessed increased waterlogging and floods, and this has prompted action within community actors. Low lying areas which are prone to flooding are often managed by local-level initiatives. ‘State, various non-state actors like individuals, communities, civil society groups and the private sector have been essential in coping with annual flooding and major flood events at local level in Mumbai’ (Zimmermann et al., 2019). Due to residents experiencing flooding on a yearly basis, many in low-lying area have developed an experience-based understanding of flooding, and often form associations or informal groups to prepare for natural disasters. In certain suburbs in Mumbai, where floods have been more frequent than before, community groups have ‘contributed significantly in emergency situations where undertaking relief and rescue measures through formal channels via government was difficult’ (Zimmermann et al., 2019). Over the last few years, NGOs have also played an essential role in disaster management and climate resilience. AGNI (Action for Good Governance Networking in India), aided in rescue operations through networks and through provision of rescue equipment. Another NGO, CARE India, actively distributes disaster relief funds to vulnerable sections of society. In 2019, heavy rains caused frequent floods in Maharashtra, and minority communities with low adaptive capacity were severely affected. CARE India provided support through rebuilding infrastructure and providing ration kits (CARE India, 2022).

Local level initiatives therefore play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. While some developments have been made on an institutional front, city and state governments still lack active involvement when it comes to climate change adaptation. Plans are not concretely set or legally binding, and are heavily influenced by politics and power dynamics. The time to act is now, but Mumbai is failing to implement strong institutional measures to combat climate change.

Conclusion

Mumbai is one of the fastest growing urban spaces in the world, but its geography, both natural and man-made, makes it one of the most vulnerable cities to climate change. It is essential for Mumbai’s urban change, and governance, to take up on policies and plans which can deal with the inevitable impact of climate change. Mitigation and climate adaptation should be on the forefront of urban governance for the coastal city. Without well formulated plans, the city can experience disastrous effects of climate change. However, institutional actors have failed to implement adaptive policies necessary for building resilience. Top-down policies and plans such as the MCAP may have been a starting point, but given the accelerated risk of climate change, such non-statutory plans are not contributing enough towards capacity building. Local initiatives on the other hand, have been much more active in the city. Civil society, NGOs, and even specific communities have played an essential role in adaptation and mitigation, and continue to do so. It is also essential to note that while it is critical for local actors to be part of the urban governance, there is also a need for scaling up adaptation initiatives taken at local levels. Local initiatives and innovations in India have largely occurred due to lack of institutional protocol and climate governance at local levels have been in reaction to lack of climate adaptation policy in Mumbai. Failures of institutional frameworks have forced informal sectors to step in, and the lack of involvement of state actors reflects slow and inadequate capacity building. While NGOs and civil society in Mumbai provide excellent examples of the importance of non-state actors, failure of institutional actors results in inadequate adaptation and mitigation efficiency. Institutional incentives in Mumbai need to be in support of local-level initiative, and non-state actors cannot be a replacement for institutional actors.

The science of climate change has been clear for years now, and without active action from urban governments, Mumbai and its inhabitants will experience more severe calamities in the future. However, with collaboration between both institutional and non-institutional actors, the future of the city of dreams can be secured.